The data underlying this map comes from the most recently available independent polling results for all 50 states, for Latinos, and for non-Latinos. We begin by importing state average poll results from Real Clear Politics as well as fivethirtyeight.com . We then include specific poll results on Latino vote choice from the most recent Latino Decisions polls, or other reputable pollsters, for each state. This database will be continually updated on a weekly, or daily basis throughout the election season so that the map is always up-to-date with the most recent polling data.
In addition to poll results on candidate vote preference, we also include the share of all voters expected to be Latino in all 50 states. This data comes from both U.S. Census reports on the number of Latino eligible, and registered voters in each state, as well as from an examination of the current statewide voter files to assess the percentage of all registered voters who are Latino. We also take into account historical data on Latino registration and turnout from 2000 - 2010 elections.
As you make your own adjustments to Latino voter turnout, or Latino two-party vote choice, all 50 states simultaneously change their most current state-based estimates, so that each state retains a unique model based on current data, and then all 50 states are aggregated to estimate the total electoral votes for each candidate.
Compilation and statistical modeling of the data was done by Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D. , co-founder of Latino Decisions, and Justin H. Gross, Ph.D. , chief methodologist and statistician for Latino Decisions.
